Is it more than fair to pose the question…”Is Oakland Raiders quarterback Derek Carr overrated”? If we remove the emotion in the equation- especially if you’re a Raider fan- the stats suggest is would be remiss not to ask such a question.
Let’s look at Carr’s performance to date by the numbers alone.
Carr certainly did put up some numbers to keep fans enthusiastic going into the 2015 season. Carr threw for 3,270 yards with 21 touchdowns in his debut season last year. He did also throw 12 interceptions. His red zone performance was decent notably in fourth quarters and his efforts helped Oakland to three wins in their last six games. This year he has been given an infusion of new talent, especially Amari Cooper, to hopefully improve upon last year’s results.
But there are other stats that should be considered. When compared to Andrew Luck first year both quarterbacks had very similar passer ratings yet Andrew Luck’s QBR was 65.2 vs. Carr’s 38.4. As the season came to a close Carr amassed a minus-16.6 percent mark in Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) metric. That was worse than his efforts throughout the Raiders' 0-10 start to the year (-13.8 percent)."
So these figures are complicated algorithms and may not amount to supporting a dooms day projection but bottom line is the Oakland Raiders Derek Carr has a lot to prove. one fact is that QB's drafted after the top ten pick rarely succeed in the NFL; D. Brees, T. Brady and R. Wilson are some exceptions to the stats. Carr was a second round pick.
Here’s some other numbers to chew on…Carr’s TD/INT ratio was good but Carr's touchdowns were many times very short passes in situations when other teams might have run the ball. Over the season his pass distance averaged 6.5 in the air set against the NFL average of 11.9 yards. Furthermore eleven of Carr’s twenty one touchdown passes were within three yards of the goal line. Compare that against the fact that 31% of all other QB’s scores were similar type passes.
Fans are understandably encouraged and rightfully so based on the QB’s performance but many a QB's past who had the hopes of many only ended in disappoint. Those critical of Carr should also be patient and wait to see if this is a true franchise type player. For the record my bet is with Carr!
Scott Davis writes on college and pro football and has several sites dedicated to information and imagery surrounding players.